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The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies?
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Does anyone else feel neutral about GDP in terms of its importance? A few years ago I read The Second Machine Age, which opened my eyes to the fact that due to the advancement of digital technologies, there are products and services being created that add value to our economy, but end up hurting GDP.
The Second Machine Age. This is an academic book, but written in a very easy to read style. Also available in audiobook format. I simply love this book and recommend it to anyone of any political leaning who wants to understand more about why we’re where we are economically and politically.
Det tror jeg ikke. Du skal tænke over at når du fjerner alle jobs i transport, fremstilling, service, og lignende brancher, så bliver der mere kamp om de tilbageværende jobs i andre brancher.
Og hvis du lige sammenligner med hvor hurtigt udvilking er gået siden 1990, så er 2040 et ret high tech tidspunkt set fra 2016.
Hvis det har interesse så kan The Second Machine Age anbefales som interessant læsning om problemstillingen.
The one that's making the rounds at work is The Second Machine Age. I haven't read it yet but that might be more up your alley
Read the second machine age
The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies https://www.amazon.com/dp/0393350649/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_i_2SsECbT95NG21
>Except, empirically, it shows otherwise.
Actually, minimum wages have been shown to cause job losses: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/26/business/economy/seattle-minimum-wage.html
The Berkeley study covered restaurant workers only. A different University of Washington study compiled data from all sectors in Seattle, and showed far worse results:
The University of Washington researchers found that the minimum-wage increase resulted in higher wages, but also a significant reduction in the working hours of low-wage earners. This was especially true of the more recent minimum-wage increase, from as high as $11 an hour to up to $13 an hour in 2016. In that case, wages rose about 3 percent, **but the number of hours worked by those in low-wage jobs dropped about 9 percent — a sizable amount that led to a net loss of earnings on average.**
Yeah surely the rents don't help, but if you make the minimum wage $100/hour, you will have fewer jobs. This is econ 101 stuff.
As for the automation replacing jobs thing, the experts on AI/robotics are mostly in agreement on this. Check out:
The Second Machine Age by Erik Brynjolfsson, director of the MIT Center for Digital Business and one of the most cited scholars in information systems and economics, and Andrew McAfee, principal research scientist at MIT,
Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future, by Martin Ford.
High-Skilled White Collar Work? Machines Can Do That Too NY Times article
It's not really a question of when, it's already happening.
Consider how:
Turbotax and automated payroll systems have replaced a significant % of accounting positions
Wall St firms need fewer employees because most trading is now automated
Highly automated Amazon warehouses means fewer employees are needed for retail and malls shut down
Law firms now need fewer new associates and paralegals due to legal software
Universities can hire fewer teaching assistants due to educational software
In the ports of NYC and worldwide a few engineers controlling robotic cranes have replaced tens of thousands of longshoreman unloading and loading ships
Many newer behemoth companies like Facebook and Google are worth far more than old guard firms like GM or Walmart but require only a few hundred to a few tens of thousands of human employees...
And technological progress isn't slowing down, it is speeding up. Think of the approximately 20 million drivers who will be almost surely out of a job within the next 2 decades as self driving cars and trucks hit the roads.
Yes there will still be jobs, but a surprising number of them are being and will continue to be automated, at an ever increasing rate. One cashier watching 10 self-checkout scanners replacing ten cashiers is a good example of the jobs that might still require humans... until you replace her too with a robot.
Neither tariffs nor high minimum wages will change this trend. UBI is really the only long term solution.
Since you're enlightened on this subject, I wonder if you've read this book? If so, what are your thoughts on it? Its part of what got me thinking about the subject.
https://www.amazon.com/Second-Machine-Age-Prosperity-Technologies/dp/0393350649
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